55 minutes ago
Historical yield curve inversions reflect high inflation
The yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries inverted even more sharply on Wednesday, but that was more a sign of inflation than a recession warning.
At one point, the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields was as negative as 111 basis points — the widest since 1981.
While this is usually a harbinger of an impending recession, some strategists say this time, the sharp inversion of the yield curve reflects higher inflation.
Check out the chart…
spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries.
“The [inversion] “We are facing higher inflation than expected, and the Fed should move to a higher terminal rate than previously expected,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of US fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management. “
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments earlier this week widened the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields.
Read more about yield curve inversion and what it means here.
–Darla Mercado, Buddy Dome
An hour ago
It rose to 45.2% in the latest Investors Intelligence weekly survey
Opinion among financial newsletter editors surveyed rose to 45.2% in the latest week — hitting a 13-month high of 48.6% in early February — up from 38.4% the previous week, according to Investors Intelligence.
Those who believe the market is headed for a correction fell to 24.7% from 28.8% the previous week, while those who believe the market is headed for a correction fell to 30.1% from 32.8%.
The so-called “bull-bear spread,” or the difference between the percentage of bulls and the number of bears, “widened significantly,” from 9.6 points to 20.5 points — the 16th consecutive week the spread has been positive (predating roughly the October 2022 stock market crash.)
The latest reading, again, is close to the 13-month high spread of 22.9 points reached in early February. “Spreads of around +20% do not yet mark the peak of the larger market,” Investors Intelligence said.
Investor sentiment surveys are conflicting indicators. When bullishness is high, most investors are already committed to the stock, and the risk is high because there is less firepower on the upside to enter the market. Conversely, when volatility is high, it means that the risk of prices falling further is low as most investors have already sold.
– Scott Snapper
An hour ago
Stocks make huge moves in extended trading
Check out the companies making headlines after the bell.
Shares of Uber — the ride-sharing platform — rose 2.5% Bloomberg The company said it is weighing a possible spinoff of its freight logistics division.
Silvergate Capital – Shares plunged 36% after the company announced it was winding down operations and liquidating Silvergate Bank. The news comes a week after the bank warned it may not be able to continue operations following the collapse of FTX, a client of the bank, following a series of financial challenges and government investigations.
MongoDB – Shares of the database platform provider fell 8% after the bell. MongoDB provided weak guidance on earnings, but beat both the top and bottom lines in the fourth quarter.
Check out the full list here.
– Hakyung Kim
An hour ago
US stock futures were flat on Wednesday
US stock futures opened flat on Wednesday night.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 12 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.04% and 0.01%, respectively.
– Hakyung Kim
